Team ratings
As of 18 Oct, 23:56 UTC. Opponent-adjusted efficiency ratings in expected points added (EPA) per play, re-fitted using only games completed before this moment. Early in the season these lean heavily on last season (down-weighted) and are shrunk toward league average. Net = offense + defense.
| # | Team | Last starter | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX Jaguars | 0.095 | 0.052 | 0.043 | 2.37 | 1.74 | 0.047 | 5 | Trevor Lawrence |
| 2 | LA Rams | 0.092 | 0.068 | 0.024 | 2.30 | 2.02 | 0.089 | 5 | Matthew Stafford |
| 3 | NE Patriots | 0.080 | 0.040 | 0.040 | 2.02 | 1.73 | 0.077 | 5 | Drake Maye |
| 4 | SEA Seahawks | 0.071 | -0.017 | 0.088 | 2.10 | 1.56 | -0.010 | 6 | Sam Darnold |
| 5 | BUF Bills | 0.070 | 0.101 | -0.031 | 2.74 | 2.32 | 0.121 | 5 | Josh Allen |
| 6 | SF 49ers | 0.063 | 0.069 | -0.006 | 2.48 | 2.10 | 0.116 | 5 | Brock Purdy |
| 7 | BAL Ravens | 0.051 | 0.048 | 0.003 | 2.41 | 2.02 | -0.076 | 5 | Tyler Huntley |
| 8 | HOU Texans | 0.047 | -0.023 | 0.070 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 0.007 | 5 | C.J. Stroud |
| 9 | KC Chiefs | 0.037 | 0.029 | 0.008 | 2.22 | 1.95 | 0.086 | 4 | Patrick Mahomes |
| 10 | DEN Broncos | 0.035 | -0.010 | 0.046 | 1.76 | 1.76 | -0.005 | 6 | Bo Nix |
| 11 | MIN Vikings | 0.029 | -0.060 | 0.089 | 1.84 | 1.48 | -0.011 | 5 | Kyler Murray |
| 12 | GB Packers | 0.025 | 0.028 | -0.003 | 2.08 | 2.05 | 0.094 | 5 | Jordan Love |
| 13 | DET Lions | 0.019 | 0.064 | -0.045 | 2.66 | 2.43 | 0.121 | 5 | Jared Goff |
| 14 | CIN Bengals | 0.012 | 0.028 | -0.017 | 2.36 | 2.08 | 0.058 | 5 | Joe Burrow |
| 15 | CHI Bears | 0.006 | 0.022 | -0.015 | 2.13 | 2.03 | -0.113 | 5 | Tyson Bagent |
| 16 | ATL Falcons | 0.006 | -0.007 | 0.013 | 1.98 | 2.04 | 0.009 | 5 | Michael Penix Jr. |
| 17 | CAR Panthers | -0.006 | 0.017 | -0.023 | 2.15 | 2.20 | -0.010 | 4 | Bryce Young |
| 18 | TB Buccaneers | -0.013 | -0.025 | 0.011 | 1.88 | 1.98 | -0.088 | 5 | Jalon Daniels |
| 19 | PHI Eagles | -0.020 | -0.038 | 0.017 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 0.001 | 5 | Jalen Hurts |
| 20 | PIT Steelers | -0.021 | -0.012 | -0.008 | 1.92 | 1.97 | -0.057 | 5 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 21 | LAC Chargers | -0.026 | -0.070 | 0.045 | 1.68 | 1.90 | -0.052 | 5 | Justin Herbert |
| 22 | IND Colts | -0.034 | -0.007 | -0.027 | 2.30 | 2.30 | -0.054 | 5 | Daniel Jones |
| 23 | NYG Giants | -0.039 | -0.021 | -0.019 | 2.03 | 2.06 | -0.044 | 5 | Jameis Winston |
| 24 | CLE Browns | -0.044 | -0.075 | 0.032 | 1.51 | 1.90 | -0.060 | 5 | Deshaun Watson |
| 25 | DAL Cowboys | -0.045 | 0.050 | -0.095 | 2.54 | 2.62 | 0.076 | 5 | Dak Prescott |
| 26 | NO Saints | -0.047 | -0.038 | -0.009 | 1.96 | 2.32 | -0.059 | 5 | Tyler Shough |
| 27 | WAS Commanders | -0.056 | -0.008 | -0.048 | 1.97 | 2.48 | 0.032 | 5 | Jayden Daniels |
| 28 | LV Raiders | -0.060 | -0.045 | -0.015 | 1.95 | 2.25 | 0.005 | 5 | Kirk Cousins |
| 29 | ARI Cardinals | -0.065 | -0.007 | -0.059 | 1.98 | 2.73 | -0.045 | 5 | Jacoby Brissett |
| 30 | NYJ Jets | -0.068 | -0.050 | -0.018 | 1.66 | 2.25 | -0.064 | 5 | Geno Smith |
| 31 | MIA Dolphins | -0.079 | -0.034 | -0.045 | 1.78 | 2.39 | -0.061 | 5 | Malik Willis |
| 32 | TEN Titans | -0.116 | -0.068 | -0.048 | 1.48 | 2.21 | -0.150 | 5 | Cam Ward |
Luck and regression watch
Season to date. Expected wins come from how well each team has actually played (net EPA per play in each game, converted to a win chance using earlier seasons). Luck = wins minus expected wins: teams whose results are well ahead of their play (+1 or more) tend to regress; teams well behind (−1 or less) tend to improve. One-score records, turnover margins and fumble recoveries (about half are recovered in the long run) are the usual sources of luck. Early in the season these samples are small. Display only: the model rates teams on play quality, not on wins, so it already discounts luck.
| Team | Record | Expected wins | Luck | One-score games | Turnover margin | Fumbles recovered | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5–0 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 3–0 | +5 | 7 of 11 | Results ahead of play |
| CLE | 4–2 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 4–1 | +1 | 8 of 18 | Results ahead of play |
| DEN | 4–2 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 4–0 | +5 | 11 of 20 | Results ahead of play |
| GB | 3–2 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 2–0 | +3 | 11 of 17 | Results ahead of play |
| PHI | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 2–2 | −2 | 5 of 12 | Results ahead of play |
| PIT | 4–2 | 3.0 | +1.0 | 3–1 | +2 | 5 of 12 | In line |
| BUF | 4–1 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 3–1 | −4 | 8 of 17 | In line |
| KC | 4–0 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2–0 | +4 | 6 of 8 | In line |
| NE | 4–2 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2–1 | −6 | 8 of 17 | In line |
| SF | 5–0 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 2–0 | +3 | 7 of 14 | In line |
| DET | 3–2 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 2–1 | +4 | 7 of 12 | In line |
| DAL | 2–3 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 1–3 | −2 | 3 of 10 | In line |
| NYG | 3–2–1 | 3.2 | +0.3 | 2–1 | −2 | 9 of 16 | In line |
| NO | 2–4 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 2–2 | −4 | 9 of 19 | In line |
| LV | 3–2 | 3.0 | −0.0 | 1–1 | +5 | 9 of 21 | In line |
| CAR | 3–2 | 3.0 | −0.0 | 1–1 | +3 | 8 of 10 | In line |
| ARI | 1–4 | 1.1 | −0.1 | 0–1 | +1 | 4 of 8 | In line |
| WAS | 1–3–1 | 1.7 | −0.2 | 1–1 | +5 | 8 of 10 | In line |
| CHI | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.2 | 1–1 | −5 | 7 of 18 | In line |
| BAL | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 3–2 | +2 | 4 of 13 | In line |
| MIA | 0–5 | 0.3 | −0.3 | 0–2 | −4 | 5 of 11 | In line |
| JAX | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.3 | 2–2 | +5 | 7 of 13 | In line |
| IND | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.3 | 1–2 | −8 | 2 of 8 | In line |
| TEN | 1–5 | 1.4 | −0.4 | 1–3 | −1 | 5 of 13 | In line |
| CIN | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.6 | 2–2 | +3 | 8 of 13 | In line |
| SEA | 3–3 | 3.7 | −0.7 | 2–3 | −3 | 8 of 16 | In line |
| ATL | 2–4 | 2.7 | −0.7 | 0–3 | −5 | 9 of 16 | In line |
| LA | 2–3 | 2.9 | −0.9 | 1–2 | −3 | 3 of 10 | In line |
| LAC | 0–5 | 1.1 | −1.1 | 0–3 | −4 | 11 of 20 | Results behind play |
| TB | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.2 | 1–5 | −4 | 4 of 9 | Results behind play |
| HOU | 2–4 | 3.2 | −1.2 | 1–3 | +3 | 5 of 10 | Results behind play |
| NYJ | 2–4 | 3.3 | −1.3 | 1–3 | +3 | 12 of 24 | Results behind play |
Ratings are one input to the football-only model. QB rating: shrunk EPA per dropback of the team's most recent starter.